2023年业绩同比预计大增，关注储能及新建煤矿，维持“增持”评级

司(si)披露202三年报(bao)预告片，202三年实行(xing)归(gui)母(mu)(mu)纯(chun)利(li)(li)(li)益润(run)22.3-23.3000万元，相(xiang)比+16.8%-22.0%；实行(xing)扣(kou)非归(gui)母(mu)(mu)纯(chun)利(li)(li)(li)益润(run)22.8-23.8多(duo)亿(yi)，相(xiang)比+37.0%-43.0%。单Q4分(fen)析，2023Q4实行(xing)归(gui)母(mu)(mu)纯(chun)利(li)(li)(li)益润(run)6.1-7.1多(duo)亿(yi)，环比同(tong)期(qi)相(xiang)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)-0.8%-+15.5%，实行(xing)扣(kou)非后归(gui)母(mu)(mu)纯(chun)利(li)(li)(li)益润(run)6.6-7.6多(duo)亿(yi)，环比同(tong)期(qi)相(xiang)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)+8.1%-24.4%。司(si)公司(si)财务(wu)(wu)报(bao)表预增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)主因山(shan)西传统的煤炭的业务(wu)(wu)部门市场销售(shou)量(liang)相(xiang)比扩大，电(dian)力能源(yuan)的业务(wu)(wu)部门动能煤企业采(cai)购成(cheng)本(ben)费相(xiang)比骤降，当今(jin)山(shan)西传统的煤炭价钱保持对于上位(wei)且震幅缩窄。.我保护2023-2025年投资回报(bao)预测分(fen)析，预测2023-2025年实行(xing)归(gui)母(mu)(mu)纯(chun)利(li)(li)(li)益润(run)23.0/25.1/26.6多(duo)亿(yi)，相(xiang)比+20.4%/+9.3%/+5.8%；EPS为0.10/0.11/0.13元，代表当今(jin)股价下跌PE为13.3/12.2/11.5倍，保护“定增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)”定级。

煤炭产销增长叠加电力成本降低，业绩改善显著

中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)焦(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)销(xiao)售(shou)：平台(tai)(tai)202三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)焦(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)销(xiao)售(shou)产(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)导致提高，在(zai)这里(li)面(mian)前(qian)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)、半年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)焦(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)产(chan)(chan)(chan)/商(shang)品生产(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)排行(xing)为954/959亿吨，同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比+15.7%/+17.7%，预估(gu)第四(si)个每月(yue)度(du)、半年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)产(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)与(yu)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)、半年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)变化规律较(jiao)小。202三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)秦(qin)港(gang)(gang)5500大卡驱动力煤房价(jia)为965元(yuan)/吨，同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比急(ji)剧变低(di)24.0%；京唐(tang)港(gang)(gang)主焦(jiao)煤（宁夏产(chan)(chan)(chan)）库调价(jia)房价(jia)为2283元(yuan)/吨，同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比急(ji)剧变低(di)19.6%。平台(tai)(tai)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)(guo)焦(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)销(xiao)售(shou)产(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)逐(zhu)(zhu)渐肯定状态上(shang)风(feng)险对冲了贸易市场煤价(jia)上(shang)涨(zhang)反应。电(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)工(gong)程(cheng)销(xiao)售(shou)：投资(zi)投资(zi)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)部分(fen)，利益(yi)于煤价(jia)回调函(han)数较(jiao)多，平台(tai)(tai)火力发(fa)电(dian)(dian)投资(zi)投资(zi)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)升幅减少；量(liang)(liang)部分(fen)，平台(tai)(tai)开(kai)卖电(dian)(dian)能有所作为减少，前(qian)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)、半年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)平台(tai)(tai)共发(fa)/售(shou)电(dian)(dian)283/268亿度(du)，同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比+0.6%/+0.4%，在(zai)这里(li)面(mian)Q3发(fa)/售(shou)电(dian)(dian)112/1015亿度(du)，月(yue)环比+35.1%/+35.2%；产(chan)(chan)(chan)品报价(jia)部分(fen)，前(qian)全年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)、半年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)一般(ban)电(dian)(dian)费476元(yuan)/千(qian)伏安时，同(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)比+2.6%。202三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平台(tai)(tai)电(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)工(gong)程(cheng)题材股很明(ming)显减少，平台(tai)(tai)显示的5月(yue)起电(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)工(gong)程(cheng)销(xiao)售(shou)逐(zhu)(zhu)渐开(kai)始扭亏(kui)增盈。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，其他储能项目同步拓展

变(bian)(bian)快(kuai)布局(ju)合理全钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂容(rong)量电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)板(ban)产融结合，品(pin)牌储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)变(bian)(bian)革变(bian)(bian)快(kuai)实施。（1）全钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂容(rong)量电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)板(ban)新項目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)：6月(yue)27日一次300MW大功率全钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂容(rong)量电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)板(ban)制(zhi)(zhi)作的(de)线动工发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，4月(yue)做(zuo)完桩基公程(cheng)(cheng)，估计(ji)202四(si)年(nian)(nian)下(xia)6个(ge)月(yue)建(jian)(jian)成投(tou)(tou)建(jian)(jian)，表(biao)中1MW试验检测(ce)制(zhi)(zhi)作的(de)线已安转调试程(cheng)(cheng)序(xu)做(zuo)完，估计(ji)一次新項目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)达生完孩子(zi)占(zhan)(zhan)我(wo)(wo)们国家(jia)的(de)市(shi)面比例10%。最后计(ji)划(hua)沙(sha)洲(zhou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)气2期30MW全钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)流(liu)(liu)锂容(rong)量电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)芯(xin)板(ban)储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)铺助调频示范区新項目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)，新項目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程(cheng)(cheng)定制(zhi)(zhi)及储(chu)(chu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)体(ti)统主的(de)设备中标事业(ye)已做(zuo)完。（2）钒(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)(kuang)选冶制(zhi)(zhi)作的(de)线发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)：6月(yue)29日汇宏矿(kuang)(kuang)业(ye)投(tou)(tou)资一次3000吨/年(nian)(nian)高纯五防氧化二钒(fan)(fan)选冶制(zhi)(zhi)作的(de)线动工发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)，估计(ji)202四(si)年(nian)(nian)下(xia)6个(ge)月(yue)建(jian)(jian)成投(tou)(tou)建(jian)(jian)，达生完孩子(zi)占(zhan)(zhan)我(wo)(wo)们国家(jia)的(de)比例约20%。品(pin)牌共计(ji)划(hua)发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)2×3000吨/年(nian)(nian)，伴(ban)随着钒(fan)(fan)被开始被发(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)借助，品(pin)牌钒(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)(kuang)资原(yuan)币(bi)值突显。

海则滩建设加快，第五次高管增持落地彰显信心

海则滩煤(mei)(mei)厂(chang)項目保(bao)守估(gu)计2026年(nian)出煤(mei)(mei)。厂(chang)家相关山(shan)(shan)东亿(yi)(yi)华海则滩煤(mei)(mei)厂(chang)項目是在山(shan)(shan)东省榆横矿山(shan)(shan)，煤(mei)(mei)种首(shou)要(yao)为优异精细(xi)化(hua)工(gong)品用煤(mei)(mei)及驱动力机(ji)煤(mei)(mei)，能源储(chu)量11.4五亿(yi)(yi)吨(dun)，月均低热气6500大卡(ka)之(zhi)上。已于2024年(nian)14月31日整体风格工(gong)程建设学习进度比记(ji)划前(qian)提一些(xie)月，保(bao)守估(gu)计2026年(nian)配备出煤(mei)(mei)具体条件(jian)。该(gai)項目能达到(dao)1000十万(wan)吨(dun)/年(nian)优异精细(xi)化(hua)工(gong)品用煤(mei)(mei)及驱动力机(ji)煤(mei)(mei)生(sheng)产销售水平，按近(jin)五年(nian)市(shi)厂(chang)煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)预测纯收(shou)益润约4两(liang)万(wan)亿(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，按2024年(nian)市(shi)厂(chang)月均煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)预测纯收(shou)益润约44万(wan)亿(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。服(fu)务监(jian)(jian)管(guan)层无(wu)数次(ci)加持(chi)尽显(xian)有了坚定信(xin)心(xin)。2024年(nian)-10月厂(chang)家公示公告核心(xin)思想(xiang)服(fu)务监(jian)(jian)管(guan)成(cheng)员第二十次(ci)加持(chi)厂(chang)家股价(jia)记(ji)划落(luo)实(shi)完(wan)了，首(shou)次(ci)合(he)计数加持(chi)0.09%，成(cheng)绩厂(chang)家服(fu)务监(jian)(jian)管(guan)层对厂(chang)家发展(zhan)方向的有了坚定信(xin)心(xin)。

高风险温馨(xin)提示：煤价急跌超预(yu)想；中国煤炭销售量不(bu)(bu)抵预(yu)想；储电改变不(bu)(bu)抵预(yu)想。

   

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