群体事件：1）非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌上传(chuan)2025 第(di)(di)四季(ji)度至2027 第(di)(di)四季(ji)度生(sheng)产(chan)销售业(ye)绩推(tui)测通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)告信息，不(bu)断2025-2028年归是属于(yu)于(yu)出(chu)现非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌股(gu)东人员(yuan)增减的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)纯提成润各分为(wei)为(wei)28、38、58 亿(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)；2）非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌隶(li)属于(yu)西安亿(yi)华(hua)(hua)矿(kuang)山机械建(jian)设建(jian)设非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌暨海则(ze)滩矿(kuang)山顶目(mu)50 亿(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)银(yin)团个人信用卡贷款银(yin)行(xing)(xing)授信审批制顺(shun)利通(tong)(tong)过的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)告信息，非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌隶(li)属于(yu)西安亿(yi)华(hua)(hua)矿(kuang)山机械建(jian)设建(jian)设非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌获得(de)了总面积不(bu)高达(da)50 亿(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)银(yin)团个人信用卡贷款；3）出(chu)版(ban)股(gu)分买(mai)入财产(chan)措施通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)告信息，以1.29 元(yuan)/股(gu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)市场价出(chu)版(ban)新股(gu)，买(mai)入非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)非(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)常(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)牌天(tian)悦煤业(ye)51.0095%股(gu)本；4）煤下铝(lv)顶目(mu)矿(kuang)山权(quan)抓取进(jin)况通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)知(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)通(tong)(tong)告信息，正面推(tui)行(xing)(xing)工程地质堪探、储量备案申请及(ji)抓取矿(kuang)山权(quan)事情，达(da)生(sheng)产(chan)后(hou)不(bu)断给(ji)予产(chan)能分析690 万桶/年。

推动获取煤下铝采矿权，资产实现新价值：公司所属森达源煤矿等8 座矿井是第一批获取煤下铝土矿采矿权的矿井，预估铝土矿资源量共计1.16 亿吨，按照采出比60%计算，可采出量约6,958 万吨，预计总产能为690 万吨/年。公司正在积极推进地质勘探、储量备案及获取采矿权工作。按照现有产能，煤下铝生产成本约300 元/吨、销售价格约450 元/吨计算，预计每年可增加公司营业收入总额逾27 亿元、净利润约4.6 亿元。

海则滩煤矿项目50 亿元银团贷款授信获批，彰显信用修复：海则滩煤矿井主要为优质化工用煤及动力煤，资源储量11.45 亿吨。预计2026 年产煤300 万吨；2027 年达产，预计产煤1,000 万吨。海则滩煤矿投产并充分释放产能后，按2023 年市场平均煤价初步测算，年新增营业收入约90 亿元、新增净利润约44亿元。本次授信审批通过，有利于加快海则滩煤矿项目建设进度，加速海则滩煤矿投产；也体现了公司信用和融资功能实质修复，有效优化了公司融资结构。

推动优质焦煤公司收购，增厚业绩协同发展：公司将以1.29 元/股的价格发行新股，比2024 年7 月24 日收盘价溢价17.27%，来购买公司天悦煤业51.0095%股权，交易价格暂定不超过35,000.00 万元。本次交易完成后，上市公司优质焦煤资源储量可增加2,836.96 万吨，焦煤产能产量可增加60 万吨/年，假定本次交易按暂定价格（不超过35,000.00 万元）成交，上市公司2023 年度每股收益预计将从0.1020 元提升至0.1038 元，提升1.76%；ROE 将从5.0124%提升至5.1393%，提升0.1269pct，业绩上升明显。

看好在建项目投产进度，预期未来三年高增长：基于公司现有产能和对于海则滩煤矿建设投产的良好预期，公司预计2025-2027 年归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为28、38、58 亿元，同比分别为23.58%、35.71%、52.63%，预计2025-2027 年经营性净现金流量分别为73、85、122 亿元，同比3.92%、16.44%、43.53%。高利润增长率和现金流增长率将大幅提高公司抗风险能力、现金分红能力，推动公司投资价值上行。

盈利预测与估值

人们预估厂家2024-2026 年保证 归母净毛(mao)利(li)润(run)率润(run)24.93/28.76/34.12 亿美金，月(yue)环比增涨(zhang)10.05%/15.34%/18.63%；EPS 为0.11/0.13/0.15 元，分属PE 为9.98/8.65/7.29 倍，长(zhang)期保持“持股”评定。

风险提示

经(jing)(jing)济发展波动经(jing)(jing)济发展失(shi)速下(xia)(xia)移；煤(mei)(mei)价下(xia)(xia)滑超(chao)预计(ji)；煤(mei)(mei)炭能(neng)源时产不(bu)到(dao)预计(ji)；煤(mei)(mei)下(xia)(xia)铝有(you)关(guan)的(de)的(de)施(shi)工施(shi)工进度(du)计(ji)划(hua)不(bu)到(dao)预计(ji)；房(fang)产购置施(shi)工进度(du)计(ji)划(hua)不(bu)到(dao)预计(ji)。

       

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